The local forecast up until 0800hr Saturday 10th May 2008.

Forecast last updated 0815hr on Friday 9th May 2008.

After two consecutive spring months with temperatures below the 30-year mean temperature for Coventry, it is something of relief to be able to enjoy some spring warmth so far this May, with day time temperatures averaging 20.0°C, 4.7°C above normal in this eight day period locally.

It looks as if it will ramain warm for the time of year right through next week, though it won't necessarily be dry throughout, with a risk of an occasional shower, especially today, and by next Tuesday.

On Friday, there is some patchy light rain out to the west of our region, and there could just be some light rain locally at times this morning, though most places will stay dry, with sunny spells. It will be more cloudy today however, with a risk of an afternoon shower as cloud bubbles up in the heat of the day.

In a light south-easterly breeze, maximum temperatures should still rise to a warm 23°C today despite the cloud - this is well above average for the 9th of May (15.3°C) in Coventry.

A fine dry night will follow with minima around 13°C.

Outlook -warm and dry this weekend, with Sunday perhaps having the more prolonged sunshine.

Just for the record...... .......................it is not always warm in the first nine days or so of May - for example, on this day in 1961, the day's maximum temperature only rose to 8.3°C in Coventry, while there was an early air frost during the morning of the 9th of May in both 1980 and 1984. On the 9th of May 1927 however, it was warm in Coventry with a high of 23.2°C, though one day later, the maximum only reached 11.1°C.

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A summary of the 24 hour weather readings taken at Bablake's Met Office Weather Station at 0800hr:-

Weather at time of observation - cloudy but dry .

Temperature at time of observation in Coventry: 15.0°C

Extracts from a "typical year" in Coventry

May - "Blossoms in May are not good they say"

For some, May should be considered our first summer month, though in fact it is still spring, very much so in some years. Nevertheless, there is considerable warming evident comapred to April in our region - only three May months have been colder tah April in our data series dating back to 1892 (1894, 1955 and 1987).

Early month can be cold and grey with "anticyclonic gloom" carried inland on NE winds from the still chilly North Sea. In this period, maximum temperatures of just 10°C are common. The coldest May day on record recorded just 4.9°C in 1955 .

By late May however, 26°C is quite likely on at least one day; the warmest such day in 1947 saw temperatures soar to 30.9°C - surprisingly, none of the warmest May days on record have come in recent years despite so called "global warming". We have only recorded maximum temperatures above 30°C twice since 1892 (1944 & 1947).

A good May is traditionally a bad omen however, as " a hot May makes a fat churchyard"; by contrast though, a cold May is considered by folk lore to be a good sign of a promising harvest in the coming summer.

Farmers and growers may be alarmed to hear that we can still suffer from a hard frost during May - in 1938, we recorded an overnight minimum of -5°C, a temperature considered cold in winter these days! As recently as May 2005 we registered 6 ground frosts, with 9 in 1996

Towards the end of the twentieth century, May was showing signs of cooling down with May 1996 one of the coldest on record. However, recent warm Mays would include 1998, 1999 and 2006, none of which however make the top 5 Mays on record. Using 30 year climatological normals as a guide, the early 20th century recorded average temperatures 0.8°C warmer than those of the early 1990's - recent years have witnessed a recovery however.

Strangely for some, May is often Coventry's sunniest month with over 200 hours. 14 hours in a day is quite common in late month. May 1992 recorded the highest May sunshine total on record with 269.2 hours of sunshine; as a complete contrast, May 1932 only managed 87.3 hours all month!

Sunshine levels have increased slightly of late, though only a return to the values typtcal in the early years of this century.

So what of Spring?

Changes in temperature in spring are slow, as the UK is surrounded by sea; in the Baltic to our east and in the seas south of Greenland, melting sea ice further slows the warming process. Even as the days lengthen and the sun strengthens the still cool sea holds back the rise in temperatures. It is therefore, a long season.

Spring is the driest of our seasons and only summer records more seasonal sunshine.

During the 20th century, springs were getting colder up until the 1980s, but over the past thirty years or so, there has been a two degree rise in average spring temperatures. 1992 and 2007 were the warmest springs on record in Coventry.

Forecast

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